Population forecast, Caribbean Netherlands 2024-2050 | Statistics Netherlands (CBS)

The population of Bonaire is expected to grow from 25.1 thousand today to 30.5 thousand by the year 2035. Last year’s forecast was for 28.6 thousand inhabitants on Bonaire in 2035. In the case of St Eustatius, the population is expected to grow from 3.2 thousand today to 3.4 thousand in 2035; last year’s forecast was 3.8 thousand in 2035. Saba had a population of 2.1 thousand at the beginning of 2024, and this is expected to be 2.3 thousand in 2035: no change from the previous forecast.

Assumptions on migration

Immigration into the Caribbean Netherlands in 2023 was higher than the previous forecast by more than two hundred persons. This resulted in a higher projected number of immigrants for next year and a slightly higher number in the longer term. However, there are significant differences between islands and by country of birth. The increase in the number of immigrants affects Bonaire in particular, and mainly concerns persons born outside the Kingdom of the Netherlands. On Saba and St Eustatius, the number of immigrants was slightly lower than expected.

Emigration from the Caribbean Netherlands in 2023 was higher than the previous forecast by more than two hundred persons. The difference was the largest in the case of St Eustatius, which saw double the expected number of persons emigrating in 2023. As a result, emigration from St Eustatius has been adjusted upwards in the new forecast for 2035. The number of people emigrating from Saba was actually slightly lower than expected in 2023. There was more emigration from Bonaire in 2023 than expected in the previous forecast. Nevertheless, the projected number of people emigrating from Bonaire between now and 2035 has been revised downwards: this is due to adjustments in the probability of immigrants leaving the island again.

The probability of the departure of immigrants according to length of stay has been adjusted, using the latest data. This time, data from older immigration cohorts (before 2011) were also included when estimating the probability of departure after a longer period. According to these new estimates, 89 percent (rather than 91 percent) of immigrants born in the European Netherlands, 70 percent (rather than 66 percent) of those born in Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten and 75 percent (rather than 76 percent) of those from other countries will ultimately leave again. Also, 57 percent of those born in the Caribbean Netherlands who emigrate are also ultimately expected to return (rather than 54 percent). The model allows for immigrants leaving up to 30 years after settling on one of the islands. This means that emigration is more stable. Compared to the previous forecast, the emigration numbers are slightly lower until 2035, and slightly higher thereafter.

Assumptions on mortality

In 2023, the total number of deaths in the Caribbean Netherlands was twelve lower than expected in the previous forecast. The number of deaths in the years to come in the current forecast is higher than in the previous forecast; this is because there will be more inhabitants under the current forecast. As in previous forecasts, it is assumed that mortality rates for residents of the Caribbean Netherlands will decrease at the same rate as for residents of the European Netherlands.

Assumptions on births

The number of births on Bonaire in 2023 was five lower than expected. In the current forecast, the expected number has been revised upwards compared to the previous forecast. This is because Bonaire is projected to have a larger number of inhabitants aged around thirty over the longer term due to higher immigration, leading to a higher birth rate. On Saba, the number of births in 2023 was one higher than in last year’s forecast. The projection for future births has remained much the same. On St Eustatius, there were five fewer births than projected in 2023. Due to the high level of emigration, fewer births are expected on St Eustatius under the new forecast than in the previous forecast.

Population forecast

Between 1 January 2011 and 1 January 2024, the population of the Caribbean Netherlands rose from 21.1 thousand to 30.4 thousand. This represents an annual average population growth of 3.4 percent. The forecast projects a population of 36.1 thousand in 2035, and annual population growth of 1.7 percent. According to the forecast, population growth will end in around 2050. By that time, the Caribbean Netherlands is expected to have more than 38.7 thousand inhabitants.

Since 2011, Bonaire has seen the strongest population growth of the three islands. The new forecast also projects the strongest growth for Bonaire between now and 2035, at 21 percent. For Saba, this is 10 percent; and for St Eustatius 5 percent.

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The previous forecast projected a lower population for Bonaire in 2050 than the new forecast – 2.1 thousand fewer people. This is mainly due to increased immigration and new estimates regarding the probability that immigrants will leave the islands again. For St Eustatius, according to the new forecast the population in 2050 will actually be six hundred lower than in the previous forecast. In the case of Saba, the projected number of residents in 2050 is one hundred lower than in the previous forecast.

The share of residents of the Caribbean Netherlands who were also born there or on Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten is expected to fall slightly between now and 2035, from 51.7 percent to 49.5 percent. Approximately 14.5 percent of the current population were born in the European Netherlands and 33.8 percent elsewhere. The proportion of those born elsewhere is expected to increase to 36 percent by 2035, while the share born in the European Netherlands is expected to remain unchanged.

According to the current forecast, the share of residents born in the European Netherlands will decrease by 1.2 percentage points over the next few years. The share of residents born in the Caribbean Netherlands or on Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten is expected to increase by more than the share born elsewhere between 2035 and 2050.

In the 2023 forecast, the projection was for a slightly higher share of residents born in the Caribbean Netherlands or on Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten by 2035: 2.5 percentage points higher than in the current forecast. The share born in the European Netherlands was 1.1 percentage points lower and the share born elsewhere was 1.3 percentage points lower. The share of residents born on Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten in 2050 was 2.8 percentage points higher than in the current forecast, while the share of residents born in the European Netherlands was 1.3 percentage points lower and the share born elsewhere was 1.5 percentage points lower.

The population of the Caribbean Netherlands continues to age. Previous forecasts showed that the share of residents aged 65 and over would start to increase. This is also the case in the current forecast. At the start of 2024, 14 percent of the population of the Caribbean Netherlands were 65 years or older. By 2035, it is projected that 20 percent of the population will be over the age of 65; by 2050, this is projected to be 26 percent. This is slightly below the projection in the previous forecast.