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sc e n ar i os o u tl i n ed i n ‘ P o p u l a t i o n O u t l o o k 2050 – 20 2 4 ed i t i o n ’ G r o wth High bi r th r ate , li f e e xpectancy and mig r ation V ariant Cha r acteristics Decl i n e L o w bi r th r ate , li f e e xpectancy and mig r ation G r e e n High bi r th r ate , l o w li f e e xpectancy G r e y L o w bi r th r ate , high li f e e xpectancy L o w b irth r a t e L o w net mig r ation Lab o ur High labour and student mig r ation A s y l u m High asylum mig r ation Sou r c e: CBS bi r th r ate li f e
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Forecast: between 17.8 and 21.8 million residents in 2050
The population of the Netherlands could grow to 21.8 million in 2050 if life expectancy, birth rate and migration increase by more than projected (Growth scenario). If they turn out to be lower than forecast, on the other hand, the population will remain approximately the same as now (Decline scenario). In the Grey scenario, in which life expectancy is the highest of all the scenarios, the number of people aged 65 and over increases to 5.4 million (50 percent more than in 2023). In the Green scenario, in which the fertility rate is the highest of all the scenarios, the number of people aged 20 and over increases to 4.7 million (25 percent more than in 2023).
| 2023 | 3.750 | 10.460 | 2.729 | 0.873 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2050 | Decline | 3.356 | 10.072 | 2.732 | 1.614 |
| 2050 | Low migration | 3.641 | 9.849 | 2.818 | 1.939 |
| 2050 | Grey | 3.383 | 10.758 | 2.962 | 2.438 |
| 2050 | Forecast* | 4.042 | 10.834 | 2.866 | 1.942 |
| 2050 | Green | 4.692 | 10.890 | 2.737 | 1.485 |
| 2050 | Asylum | 4.189 | 11.143 | 2.886 | 1.945 |
| 2050 | Labour | 4.293 | 11.602 | 2.913 | 1.949 |
| 2050 | Growth | 4.817 | 11.718 | 2.991 | 2.284 |
| * Population forecasst 2023-2070 | |||||
Number of older people is increasing
In 2023, there were 3.6 million people aged 65 and over living in the Netherlands, which was 20 percent of the total population. In all population scenarios, the number of people aged 65 and over increases, in both absolute and relative terms. This is also true if life expectancy increases only slightly. In the Green scenario, in which many children are born and people live less long than expected, the share of people aged 65 and over in 2050 is the lowest at 21 percent. It is highest in the Grey scenario, at 28 percent. The share of people aged 65 and over is also high in the Low Migration scenario (26 percent), which is partly due to the relatively low inflow of migrants aged between 20 and 39.
In the wider category of older people, there is a difference between those who are younger (65-79 years) and those who are older (80 years and over). In all scenarios, the 65-79 age group remains around the same size as in 2023, in relative terms. The share of those aged over 80 will be twice as high in most scenarios, given the size of the post-war generation born before the 1970s compared to the generations after them. In 2050, a significant number of them will still be alive and they will be part of the age group 80 and over.
| 2023 | 15 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2050 | Green | 14 | 7 |
| 2050 | Decline | 15 | 9 |
| 2050 | Labour | 14 | 9 |
| 2050 | Asylum | 14 | 10 |
| 2050 | Forecast* | 15 | 10 |
| 2050 | Growth | 14 | 10 |
| 2050 | Low migration | 15 | 11 |
| 2050 | Grey | 15 | 12 |
| * Population forecast 2023-2070 | |||
Population aged 20 to 64 declines at low migration rate
In 2023, there were approximately 10.5 million people aged 20 to 64 living in the Netherlands. This represents 59 percent of the population. If net migration (immigration minus emigration) is lower than expected in the next few decades, this group could decrease by nearly 400 thousand (Contraction scenario) or 600 thousand (Low Migration scanario) in 2050.
In the high-migration scenarios, this group actually increases, by 1.1 million (Labour scenario) to 1.3 million (Growth scenario). Whether migration is high or low will have a major impact on the size of this age group, as most migrants are in their twenties and thirties.
| 2023 | 10.460 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2050 | Low migration | 9.849 |
| 2050 | Decline | 10.072 |
| 2050 | Grey | 10.758 |
| 2050 | Forecast* | 10.834 |
| 2050 | Green | 10.890 |
| 2050 | Asylum | 11.143 |
| 2050 | Labour | 11.602 |
| 2050 | Growth | 11.718 |
| * Population forecast 2023-2070 | ||
More highly educated people in 2050
In 2023, 37 percent of the 20 to 64-year-olds had a college or university degree. This is expected to increase to 47 percent in 2050. The share of people in this age group that have completed at most prevocational secondary education (VMBO) is expected to fall from 19 to 13 percent. This is mainly due to the fact that today’s people aged 20-39 are better educated than older generations, on average. This has the same effect in all scenarios. The share of people that have completed senior general secondary education (HAVO), pre-university education (VWO) or senior secondary vocational education (MBO) will remain more or less the same in this age group. In 2023, more women held a college or university degree than men: 38 percent compared to 35 percent. That gap will be somewhat larger in 2050.
| 2023 | Men | 20 | 45 | 35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Women | 19 | 43 | 38 |
| 2050 | Men | 14 | 43 | 43 |
| 2050 | Women | 11 | 38 | 51 |
| * Estimated on the basis of actual data and projections regarding the share of people in the three levels of education, applied to the actual population of 2023 and the projected population of 2050 taken from the 2023-2070 population forecast, by age, sex and origin. | ||||
During parliamentary discussions with the Cabinet in 2018, the House of Representatives asked the Cabinet to chart the consequences of changes in size and composition of the population towards the year 2050. NIDI and CBS have therefore drawn up seven future population scenarios at the request of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment. These show what could happen if the birth rate, life expectancy and migration evolve differently to what is projected in CBS’s Population Forecast. In 2024, CBS updated the seven future population scenarios in the Exploration of the 2050 Population on behalf of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment. These projections are supplementary to CBS’s existing population forecasts.
This edition of the population scenarios is part of a larger project that also includes in-depth studies of the backgrounds to demographic trends, and the possible consequences of demographic trends for policy and society. That part of the project is being carried out by NIDI in collaboration with CBS.
Source of original article: Statistics Netherlands (CBS) (www.cbs.nl).
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