Unserved airline routes in Africa that hold keys to growth

• The top unserved routes identified by Airbus are in Africa’s biggest cities, Nairobi, Lagos, Cape Town, Dakar, and Douala.
• Despite significant traffic between certain city pairs, Airbus notes that some of these routes lack regularly scheduled non-stop flights.
• Overall, Airbus forecasts a 4.1% growth in air traffic over the next 20 years, resulting in demand for 1,180 new aircraft by 2043 across Africa.

An analysis by global aviation giant Airbus has revealed several key unserved airline routes in Africa that could provide greater connectivity for travelers, and drive economic growth in the economies while offering fresh income streams for airlines.

Several of the top unserved routes identified in Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast analysis are concentrated in Africa’s biggest cities, including Nairobi in Kenya, Lagos in Nigeria, Cape Town in South Africa, Dakar in Senegal, as well as Douala in Cameroon.

In its review, the aircraft maker also offered strategic recommendations that airlines and economies can capitalize on to realize a more connected continent. The review comes at a time when Airbus is also optimizing its capabilities to enhance its presence in Africa, the world’s new growth frontier.

Unserved Airline Routes in Africa

“Despite significant traffic between certain city pairs, some identified routes still lack regularly scheduled non-stop flights. Factors such as restrictive bilateral air service agreements, economic variables, and challenges with capacity, frequency, and operating cost efficiency contribute to these routes remaining unserved,” notes Geert Lemaire, Market Intelligence and Consulting Director, at Airbus.

“With our capacity to make analyses about route and network development potential in-house, Airbus remains committed to partnering with airlines across Africa to identify optimized fleet solutions in line with network development requirements that further stimulate the continent’s air transport industry growth and improve connectivity for travelers.”

The company’s forecast, meanwhile, predicts a 4.1 percent expansion in air traffic business over the next 20 years, a positive trajectory for the aircraft maker which sees a surge in demand for 1,180 new aircraft by 2043 in Africa alone.

Meanwhile, the continued growth of the aviation sector in Africa is expected to result in 3.3 percent real GDP growth on the continent, well above the 2.6 percent global average. This growth is ratified by data from Airbus’ Global Services Forecast, which estimates that Africa will need to introduce 15,000 more pilots, 20,000 technicians and 24,000 cabin crew to meet the surge in air travel demand.

Africa’s Civil Aviation Sector: An Overview

The civil aviation industry in Africa has long been a victim of similar challenges, including the absence of bilateral agreements on civil aviation, sky-high operating costs, unpredictable tax regimes, and a persistent record of poor safety.

For many travelers in Africa, flying between neighbouring or African cities within the same region by air was only possible by making connections from air hubs stationed outside Africa.

“The introduction of direct intra-African flights proved non-competitive in terms of pricing. This hampered African economic development and reduced African countries’ ability to trade efficiently with the world,” states Airbus’ The Great Enabler, Aerospace in Africa report states in part.

How aviation can contribute to Africa’s socio-economic development

At the moment airlines and related businesses in Africa support about seven 7 million direct and indirect jobs, and account for over $80 billion in GDP to the continent’s economy.

In 1999, a dozen African countries entered into a deal in principle to roll out the Yamoussoukro Decision, a landmark move that saw the launch of the first effort aimed at integrating and liberalizing the market to add an estimated 155,000 new aviation-related employment opportunities. This deal was also expected to inject an estimated $1.3 billion in annual GDP in the continent.

Industry experts, however, observe that this effort was never quite realized in full – perhaps only by the few who moved with speed to implement liberalization policies with their neighbours and were, in turn, rewarded for it.

For instance, according to a 2014 IATA report on the economic benefits of implementing the Yamoussoukro Decision, an agreement of a more liberal air transport market between South Africa and Kenya in the early 2000s, was credited with increasing passenger traffic by nearly 70 percent.

Additionally, allowing the operation of a low-cost carrier (LCC) between South Africa and Zambia led to a nearly 40 percent reduction in fares and a sizable increase in traffic. What’s more, when Morocco signed an open skies agreement with the European Union (EU) in 2006, traffic increased by an estimated 160 percent and the number of routes between Morocco and the EU more than tripled between 2005 and 2013.

According to Airbus’ assessment, the promise of African air transport is defined largely in terms of the demographic, economic, and policy hurdles faced by the underserved African air transport market.

Today, whereas Africa is home to 16 percent of the world’s population, it only accounts for less than 3 percent of global air service. For millions of people in Africa, the cost of a plane ticket is prohibitively expensive, on average about 45 percent higher than anywhere else in the world according to industry experts.

“The continent accounts for 30 percent of earth’s total land area but remains the most challenging terms of road network density. In terms of the distance between its largest population centers, Africa has the third largest distance between them, only behind Latin America and Asia Pacific,” Airbus explains.

Read also: Wings of resilience: IATA signals a vibrant comeback for aviation in 2024

Commercial Aircraft in Africa, Helicopters and Airbus presence in Africa’s space exploration

According to the latest analysis by Airbus, carriers across Africa are increasingly becoming aware of the operational and economic benefits of acquiring new and modern aircraft.

Currently, African carriers have chosen to operate some of the most technologically advanced aircraft such as the A350, A330neo, A320neo and the A220, the plane manufacturer explains.

Across Africa, there are over 500 Airbus helicopters in service, providing a range of both military and civil roles for law enforcement agencies, air ambulance search & rescue providers, anti-poaching programmes by the governments and private firms, infrastructure inspection, tourism and corporate missions.

“Airbus is broadening and deepening its presence through its regional subsidiary, Airbus Helicopters Southern Africa (Pty) Ltd, which offers aircraft assembly, completions, maintenance, engineering, and training,” the company states.

In the defense sector, Airbus notes that the company has nearly 95 light and medium tactical aircraft (C212, CN235 and C295) that have been delivered to 20 African nations. “The Egyptian Air Force is the largest operator of C295s worldwide, having ordered 24 of the military aircraft for their great suitability and performance in the rugged country’s hot and dusty conditions.”

Airbus says that it is also deeply involved in powering space exploration technology and advancement by collaborating with several economies in Africa.

“Airbus offers a wide portfolio of Earth observation satellite capabilities and services to governments and institutions, including the South African National Space Agency. Numerous Airbus satellites provide coverage and enable crucial communications services across the region, such as the Nilesat for Egypt and the ALSAT 2A & 2B for Algeria.

“In the Kingdom of Morocco, Airbus has the satellite prime contractor role for the MOHAMMED VI-A Earth observation satellite,” the company adds.

Over and above supplying the necessary infrastructure complete with the ground segment for space mission planning and satellite control for governments and institutions in Africa, Airbus says that it is also handling “integrated and comprehensive services capabilities for the satellite” systems once in space.

“Working with the Namibia University of Science & Technology, Airbus has established a virtual space data centre to provide geo-intelligence services to Namibia’s government departments, state agencies and private-sector customers.”